Sports betting has evolved into a global industry, and one of the most popular—and beginner-friendly—wager types is the moneyline bet. Whether you’re wagering on the NFL, UFC, NBA, or European football, understanding moneyline odds is crucial for making informed betting decisions. This guide breaks down what moneyline betting is, how it works, and when to use it as part of a smart sports betting strategy.
What Is a Moneyline Bet and Why It Matters in Sports Betting
At its core, a moneyline bet is a wager on which team or athlete will win the game or event outright—no spreads, no gimmicks, just winners and losers. It’s the most straightforward bet type, making it ideal for beginners and experienced bettors alike.
Moneyline Bet Definition
A moneyline bet is a head-to-head bet where you choose one side to win. The sportsbook sets odds based on the perceived strength of each side.
- The favorite is denoted with a minus sign (e.g., -150), meaning you must bet more to win less.
- The underdog is marked with a plus sign (e.g., +130), meaning you win more for betting less.
Real-World Example
New York Yankees -150 vs. Boston Red Sox +130
- A $150 bet on the Yankees returns $100 profit if they win.
- A $100 bet on the Red Sox returns $130 profit if they win.
This simplicity is why moneyline betting is the preferred option in UFC/MMA, MLB, NHL, and tennis, where margins or spreads aren’t commonly used.
*Odds information is taken from bookmaker W 88
According to pro sports bettor Jonah Raymond (featured in The Action Network), “Mastering the moneyline is the first step to bankroll growth. It teaches you how odds reflect implied probability—and how to spot mispricing.”
How Moneyline Odds Work: Calculating Returns and Implied Probability
Understanding how moneyline odds translate into payouts is key to evaluating value. Unlike decimal or fractional odds used in other regions, American moneyline odds are expressed as positive and negative numbers.
| Odds Type | Interpretation | Example Outcome |
| -150 | Bet $150 to win $100 | Total return = $250 |
| +130 | Bet $100 to win $130 | Total return = $230 |
How Odds Are Set
Sportsbooks calculate odds based on:
- Team strength and form
- Betting volume
- Injuries, weather, and other contextual factors
Then, they bake in a margin (known as the vig) to ensure profitability.
Implied Probability Formula
- For Favorites (-): Odds / (Odds + 100)
- e.g., -150 = 150 / (150 + 100) = 60% chance
- e.g., -150 = 150 / (150 + 100) = 60% chance
- For Underdogs (+): 100 / (Odds + 100)
- e.g., +130 = 100 / (130 + 100) = 43.5% chance
When your analysis suggests the team’s true win probability is higher than the implied odds, you may have found a value bet.
Expertise Highlight: Many professional bettors use implied probability to assess long-term viability—not just whether a team will win, but whether the odds justify the risk.
Moneyline Betting Strategies: Smarter Wagering for Long-Term Gain
While moneyline bets are simple in theory, strategy still matters. Here are proven methods for maximizing returns and minimizing unnecessary losses.
1. Betting Favorites vs. Underdogs
- Favorites win more often but offer lower returns.
- Underdogs lose more often but offer better value per win.
When to bet favorites:
- Against significantly weaker opponents
- In low-variance sports (like baseball or tennis)
When to bet underdogs:
- In close matchups with skewed public perception
- When key injuries or trends are undervalued by the market
2. Line Shopping
Odds vary between sportsbooks. A slight difference in moneyline price can impact long-term profit.
| Team | Book A | Book B | Best Choice |
| Packers | -140 | -130 | Bet at Book B |
| Dolphins | +120 | +135 | Bet at Book B |
Use tools like OddsJam, Action Network, or Betstamp to compare live moneyline prices and maximize EV (expected value).
3. Bankroll Management
Apply flat betting (e.g., always stake 1–2% of your bankroll per bet) to reduce risk.
Avoid chasing losses or doubling stakes irrationally. Moneyline betting involves variance—bankroll discipline is critical.
Authoritativeness Highlight: Professional services like Pinnacle and Bet365 offer bankroll calculators and educational material—these promote responsible, transparent betting practices aligned with industry standards.
Comparing Moneyline Betting to Other Wager Types
Understanding how moneyline betting compares to other common types helps clarify when to use it.
Moneyline vs. Point Spread
| Bet Type | Simplicity | Risk Level | Common Use |
| Moneyline | High | Moderate | All sports |
| Point Spread | Moderate | Higher | Football, NBA |
Point spreads involve betting on margins of victory. For example, a team might be -6.5 to beat another, meaning they must win by 7+ points to cover. In contrast, moneyline bets only require the team to win.
Use moneyline bets when:
- You prefer straightforward outcomes
- The game is likely to be close
- You want to avoid late-game “garbage time” covering or backdoor losses
Moneyline vs. Parlay Bets
A parlay combines multiple bets into one. Many bettors include multiple moneyline selections in parlays for higher payouts—but this also increases the chance of failure.
Risk vs. Reward:
- Parlays: High risk, high reward
- Singles (moneyline): Lower risk, more control
Trustworthiness Highlight: Licensed sportsbooks clearly display parlay odds, potential returns, and risk. Players are encouraged to understand the all-or-nothing nature of parlays before using them extensively.
Q&A Section: Common Moneyline Betting Questions
Q: Why do moneyline odds change?
A: Odds shift based on public betting trends, player injuries, and updates. If heavy money is placed on one side, sportsbooks adjust to balance risk.
Q: What happens in the event of a tie (draw)?
A: In sports where ties are possible (e.g., soccer), the moneyline often includes a three-way bet (Home/Draw/Away). A draw results in a loss unless specifically bet.
Q: Can I bet on live moneylines?
A: Yes. Live betting platforms offer real-time moneyline odds during games, adjusting dynamically as the event unfolds.
Experience Highlight: Bettors on communities like r/Sportsbook and OLBG often recommend live moneyline betting for sports like tennis and basketball, where momentum swings dramatically.
Conclusion: Mastering the Moneyline for Smarter Bets
Moneyline betting is the foundation of smart sports wagering. Its simplicity makes it perfect for beginners, yet its strategic depth offers room for experienced bettors to gain an edge through value analysis, line shopping, and bankroll control.
Summary of Key Takeaways:
- A moneyline bet is a wager on the outright winner
- Favorites require higher stakes; underdogs offer bigger payouts
- Odds reflect both payout and implied probability
- Compare lines across sportsbooks for best value
- Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll wisely
🎯 Recommended Resources for Further Learning:
- “The Logic of Sports Betting” by Ed Miller
- Action Network’s betting calculators
- OddsTrader’s moneyline comparison tool
- W88’s official betting rules and guides
